Should vs Could

Why 'The Social Network' should win best picture, and why 'The King's Speech' could win best picture

The chances are by the time anyone reads this, the results will already be in, but rather waiting to analyze this year's Academy Awards, or simply join in the cacphonous blog-shout of the winners, I prefer to weigh in my opinions without the added, and pointless, baggage of passing judgemet on Hollywood's actual decisions.

Why 'The Social Network' shoud win best picture

The truly amazing thing is not that director David Fincher and writer Aaron Sorkin managed to make a spectacular movie -- in fact it might be more suprising if they didn't -- but what's truly remarkable about The Social Network is that by all accounts this should have been a disaster of film.  

As much as books and literature love a good anti-hero, film in general does not.  In movies, we like to see our Daniel Plainviews succumb to madness, our Michael Corleones die alone and broken, or even better, our Riddicks turn out to be not such a bad guy afterall.  Sorkin's Zuckerberg was neither of these.  While it should be clearly stated that part of brilliance of this film was way Fincher & Sorkin constructured a brilliant drama via extraction and embellishment, the Zuckerberg of their story is this perfect balance between admirable genius and geniune asshole, and in the end, he can't really be seen as suffering too much for his crimes or being redeemed by his triumphs.  

This duality hits home in a really discomforting way, as I think we can all see a little bit of ourselves in Jesse Eisenberg's scrappy portrayal of the Facebook founder.  Without that unnerving flashlight into the human condition this movie very well could have been just another Pirates of Silicon Valley.  But what elevates this film is despite being set against the advent of the 21st century's most influential contribution to culture to date, Facebook is not the star of the movie.  Instead it is that honest, if somewhat magnified, duality of human nature that is brought to the forefront in the character of Mark Zuckerberg.

Fear of this kind of honesty, fear of a youth cultural Hollywood doesn't quite understand, fear of movie without out a clear happy or sad ending, all of these things could be reasons why The Social Network might not walk away with its deserving title, but whatever happens there is little doubt in my mind that of the ten nominated movies for best picture, this movie was the year's greatest, and one of worthy of counting itself amongst history's best.

Inception was a fun, good film.  It was not a great film.

Why 'The King's Speech' could win best picture

The simple answer is that it's a great film.  A really great film.  The story of a stuttering king could have easily been Sunday night PBS fodder, but director Tom Hopper and writer David Seidler managed to take this period docu-drama and make it one of the most uplifting commentaries on the admirable qualities of mankind.  Colin Firth's Oscar winning performance (see what I did there) wrenches every seat-squirming ounce of pain from watching a man struggle with his own ability speak, and for anyone who's ever experienced stage fright, it will tie your stomach in knots.  And let's be honest, who doesn't want to hire Geoffery Rush to be their awesome uncle after watching this film?  The movie is sweet without being sacchrine, it deftly avoids mellodrama, and it has by far the most entertaining use of profanity I have ever seen in a movie.  And I've watched Snatch.  

Should you definitely go out and watch this film immediately?  Yes.  Does it subversively unravel the complex grays of human nature?  No.  

So why does The King's Speech stand so good a chance at taken home Oscar gold?

Well, like all competitions, momentum is a serious thing to contend with.  Despite my own personal opinions on best movie of the year, The King's Speech has walked away with two of the most predictive prizes in the business when it comes to forecasting the Academy.  The director's guild and the producer's guild both awarded The King's Speech top honors over The Social Network, and this could represent a swing vote amongst the production heavy Academy membership.  Now of couse The Social Network did walk away with the Golden Globe, but so did Avatar, Atonement, Babel, Brokeback Mountain, and The Aviator.  For those keeping count, that's 5 wrong in the past 6 years.

Besides The Social Network being cursed with a Golden Globe, and this may sound cynical, but The King's Speech is a just a safer choice.  It's a feel good movie that puts into the most positive light its hero.  It doesn't come wrapped in the controversy of an embellished tale that somewhat besmirches a young billionaire who's influence reaches to more people than the members of the Academy could ever dream to compete with.  Not mention Aaron Sorkin is already mired in political opinion from his work in The West Wing, and despite what George Clooney's smug cloud might tell you, the Academy does not like to get openly involved in "opinions."  Remember, Crash beat Brokeback Mountain.  Crash. 

So we'll see what happens at Sunday's 83rd Annual Oscar-palooza, and there's a good chance whatever happens, no one will really care.  I mean, how many of you actually watched The Hurt Locker?  

Here's hoping that Banksy does something crazy.